Hmm, that seems to have reduced, but not eliminated the problem. I can still see if if I watch for it, but it's not too bad.
I wonder if perhaps I'm assuming incorrectly that the problem can be gotten rid of altogether?
Things tried so far:
1) Nvidia-settings
a. Changing nvidia-settings so that both vblank settings are enabled.
b. Verified with glxgears that frame rate was dropped to ~monitor refresh rate.
c. copied new /home/mythtv/.nvidia-settings-rc to /root/.nvidia-settings-rc (just for completeness).
d. created /home/mythtv/startup.sh and modified /home/mythtv/.fluxbox/apps as per previous link to force load of .nvidia-settings-rc when logging in via xwindows.
This seems to cut the problem down somewhat.
2) Having read that in some cases, multiple double bufferings can work against eachother, I tested X server with and without the double-buffering-extention ('Load "dbe"'). Returned it to original 'enabled' status in the end.
3) Explicitly turned off Twinview in XF86Config-4, just in case it was defaulting on.
4) Explicitly turned on the RenderAccel option in XF86Config-4.
5) Turned on fast writes via creation of /etc/modprobe.d/nvidia file containing: "options nvidia NVreg_EnableAGPSBA=1 NVreg_EnableAGPFW=1"
6) Added 'export __GL_SYNC_TO_VBLANK="1"' to /etc/profile, ~/.bashrc, ~/shartup.sh.
7) Added 'export XV_SYNC_TO_VBLANK="1"' to /etc/profile, ~/.bashrc, ~/shartup.sh, though I think this is superflous to the nvidia-settings up at #1.

Having read that (at some time in the past) xv wasn't able to use vertical blanking, I tried running mplayer with -vo gl2 instead of -vo xv, but that was worse. I suppose that's probably old info anyway.
In anycase, after the changes from #1, none of the above seemed to really make a difference.
-brendan